RESUMO
BACKGROUND: Estimating the burden of disease averted by vaccination can assist policymakers to implement, adjust, and communicate the value of vaccination programs. Demonstrating the use of a newly available modeling tool, we estimated the burden of influenza illnesses averted by seasonal influenza vaccination in El Salvador, Panama, and Peru during 2011-2017 among two influenza vaccine target populations: children aged 6-23 months and pregnant women. METHODS: We derived model inputs, including incidence, vaccine coverage, vaccine effectiveness, and multipliers from publicly available country-level influenza surveillance data and cohort studies. We also estimated changes in illnesses averted when countries' vaccine coverage was achieved using four different vaccine deployment strategies. RESULTS: Among children aged 6-23 months, influenza vaccination averted an estimated cumulative 2,161 hospitalizations, 81,907 medically-attended illnesses, and 126,987 overall illnesses during the study period, with a prevented fraction ranging from 0.3 % to 12.5 %. Among pregnant women, influenza vaccination averted an estimated cumulative 173 hospitalizations, 6,122 medically attended illnesses, and 16,412 overall illnesses, with a prevented fraction ranging from 0.2 % to 10.9 %. Compared to an influenza vaccine campaign with equal vaccine distribution during March-June, scenarios in which total cumulative coverage was achieved in March and April consistently resulted in the greatest increase in averted illness (23 %-3,129 % increase among young children and 22 %-3,260 % increase among pregnant women). DISCUSSION: Influenza vaccination campaigns in El Salvador, Panama, and Peru conducted between 2011 and 2018 prevented hundreds to thousands of influenza-associated hospitalizations and illnesses in young children and pregnant women. Existing vaccination programs could prevent additional illnesses, using the same number of vaccines, by achieving the highest possible coverage within the first two months of an influenza vaccine campaign.
RESUMO
BACKGROUND: Understanding the burden of influenza-associated severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) is important for setting national influenza surveillance and vaccine priorities. Estimating influenza-associated SARI rates requires hospital-based surveillance data and a population-based denominator, which can be challenging to determine. OBJECTIVES: We present an application of the World Health Organization's recently developed manual (WHO Manual) including hospital admission survey (HAS) methods for estimating the burden of influenza-associated SARI, with lessons learned to help others calculate similar estimates. METHODS: Using an existing SARI surveillance platform in Cambodia, we counted influenza-associated SARI cases during 2015 at one sentinel surveillance site in Svay Rieng Province. We applied WHO Manual-derived methods to count respiratory hospitalizations at all hospitals within the catchment area, where 95% of the sentinel site case-patients resided. We used HAS methods to adjust the district-level population denominator for the sentinel site and calculated the incidence rate of influenza-associated SARI by dividing the number of influenza-positive SARI infections by the adjusted population denominator and multiplying by 100 000. We extrapolated the rate to the provincial population to derive a case count for 2015. We evaluated data sources, detailed steps of implementation, and identified lessons learned. RESULTS: We estimated an adjusted influenza-associated 2015 SARI rate of 13.5/100 000 persons for the catchment area of Svay Rieng Hospital and 77 influenza-associated SARI cases in Svay Rieng Province after extrapolation. CONCLUSIONS: Methods detailed in the WHO Manual and operationalized successfully in Cambodia can be used in other settings to estimate rates of influenza-associated SARI.
